SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary on March 17, 2025
International macro perspective, the escalation of armed conflict in the DRC has significantly impacted global tin ore supply. Alphamin's suspension of operations at its Bisie mine has heightened market concerns over supply-side issues. Meanwhile, a weaker US dollar and favorable domestic policies have also provided support for tin prices. In the domestic tin ore market, the overall supply-demand pattern remains tight. In terms of supply, although the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have slightly rebounded, they are still constrained by tight raw material supply. The resumption progress in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar has fallen short of expectations, and the shutdown of the Bisie mine has further widened the supply gap. On the demand side, downstream solder enterprises primarily make just-in-time procurement, with high prices suppressing restocking willingness. However, the "trade-in" policy and high production schedules in the home appliance sector provide potential support for demand. Social inventory remains at a low level. Considering the dynamics of domestic and overseas markets and policy changes, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate upward next week. Investors should monitor developments in the DRC situation, the resumption progress in Wa State, and macro policy directions. Cautious operations are advised to avoid the risk of chasing high prices.
